Impact of Climate Change on the Socio-Economics of the Tourism Sector in Tobago

Traditional economic analysis cannot give small islands like Tobago the answers they need.

The models that have gone before are not equipped to provide these tourism-dependent communities with an accurate, low-cost and effective method for determining the impact of climate change on their economies.

But Tobago does not have time to lose. It needs to know now what the toll from climate change will be and what can be done about it. So the quest is on for a new, more flexible kind of economic analysis to account for these dynamics and help Tobago’s policymakers make the difficult decisions ahead.

That need was the substance of a briefing Tom Birch from the non-profit International Institute for Environment and Development and INTSAVE’s Murray Simpson prepared in collaboration with the Tobago House of Assembly (THA), the private sector and the local community in Tobago on January 2011.

Small but perfectly formed, Tobago is home to a wealth of biodiversity and a tourism industry that supports half of the island’s people. There are signs though that this way of life is under threat from three emerging, climate-related trends: sea level rise and storm surges, warmer sea temperatures and growing carbon “awareness”.

Sea level rise exposes Tobago to greater coastal erosion and beach loss as well as damage to key infrastructure like ports and hotels.  Warmer sea temperatures can endanger the algae which are crucial for coral reefs to flourish. Growing awareness of the carbon impact of long-haul flights and their associated environmental taxes could also strike Tobago off the holiday list for many European visitors.

These factors are highly uncertain, interconnected and complex, making it difficult to put a definitive price on them. One system can have a knock-on effect on another, and one set of stresses such waste water mismanagement can compound blows from other directions.

At the same time, Tobago’s tourism “product” is not one single thing but a group of related offerings that are consumed as a package. Its whole is much more than the sum of its fish, forests and reefs.

Economists have labored to tally the likely bill from these factors but the static nature of their models leaves them falling short. At best, a number can indicate the scale of a problem – it says nothing about what to do next.

It is important to put some kind of monetary value on these assets, but it is also necessary to say what action policymakers can take to prepare for and lessen some of that potential damage. Climate resilience must permeate every level of the system and become integral to governance, long-term strategies and daily operations. And that takes more than a hard and fast number.