Forest Area Management Capacity Building in Jamaica

The Dolphin Head Forest Area is a key biodiversity area (KBA) in Jamaica which has regional and global significance with respect to species biodiversity. This forest area is recorded to have a higher density of local endemic plant species and rare or threatened flora per unit area than anywhere else in Jamaica. The protection, conservation and sustainable management of the forest resources are therefore critically important to local and international stakeholders.

The CARIBSAVE Partnership, with funding from the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund, has embarked on a project entitled "Strengthening Institutional Capacity of the Local Forest Management Committee - Management Plan Implementation in the Dolphin Head Key Biodiversity Area in Jamaica". In this project, CARIBSAVE is partnering with the Dolphin Head Local Forest Management Committee (LFMC). This volunteer organisation was recognised in the 2013 Dolphin Head Forest Management Plan (DHFMP), drafted by the Forestry Department, as championing forest stewardship amongst local community members.

In order to secure the sustainability of this organisation and support the objectives of the DHFMP, the goal of this project is to strengthen the Dolphin Head LFMC's capacity to deliver critical forest management functions to the KBA. The project activities include a capacity needs assessment, training sessions and the development of a medium-term action plan to evaluate and build institutional capacity. Using the conservation priorities identified in the action plan, additional projects will be developed to continue the institution’s essential stewardship role in the Dolphin Head Forest Area. The project will be executed over a one-year period until July 2015.

The Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund is a joint initiative of l’Agence Française de Développement, Conservation International, the European Union, the Global Environment Facility, the Government of Japan, the MacArthur Foundation and the World Bank. A fundamental goal is to ensure civil society is engaged in biodiversity conservation. More information about the Fund and associated activities can be found online at www.cepf.net.

For further information this initiative, please contact Dr. Donovan Campbell at donovan.campbell@caribsave.org.

(Image: Yard Edge-www.yardedge.net)

Vulnerability, Impact and Adaptation Analyses in the Caribbean (VIAAC)

Caribbean countries are particularly exposed to extreme climate-related events, which will be exacerbated by climate change.  

Individually, these countries have distinct and varying degrees of vulnerability due to their unique environmental, socio-economic and institutional challenges.  Since most of the countries currently struggle to deal with the negative effects of climate variability, developing pragmatic adaptation solutions to cope with present and future changes is an absolute imperative.

Vulnerability, impact and adaptation (VIA) analyses will therefore help countries in the region to better plan for climate change adaptation.  In this context, under the Regional Gateway for Technology Transfer and Climate Change Action in Latin America and the Caribbean (REGATTA) initiative implemented by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the CARIBSAVE Partnership is conducting three [3] VIA analyses at the national and local scale in Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica and Haiti.

These VIA analyses are focused on water resources, agriculture, coastal areas and the tourism sector and provide an understanding of the countries’ and watersheds’ exposure to climatic events based on current climate variability and future change, such as hurricanes and sea level rise.  The VIA analyses also have an emphasis on evaluating the key ecosystem services that contribute to livelihoods in order to provide a clear understanding of their status and sensitivity to climate changes, as well as to identify opportunities to implement ecosystem-based adaptation options as part of an overall adaptation strategy.

The main outputs from this 12-month project will be (1) National and Watershed VIA documents; (2) Policy Briefs and (3) Community Adaptation Plans (CAPs) or Local Adaptation Plans of Action (LAPAs). The VIA documents will create a basis for the evaluation of actual and potential threats / risks to key sectors, activities and ecosystems in the countries and watershed communities; as well as identify corrective adaptive actions.

As decision support tools, these outputs will be developed based on the findings of the respective VIAs as their basis to support decision makers in determining where scarce resources should be targeted to address ‘high vulnerability’ areas..

The results will demonstrate, amongst other things, the importance of including non-climatic determinants of vulnerability to climate change of livelihoods and communities benefiting from ecosystem services in watershed areas. They will also improve the understanding of the main approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment and to what extent their findings are useful for implementing and facilitating adaptations at both the national and local levels.

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For more information, contact the Project Manager, Dr Donovan Campbell at donovan.campbell@caribsave.org.

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The Partnership for Canada-Caribbean Community Climate Change Adaptation

Thousands of kilometres separate Negril in Jamaica and Lunenburg in Nova Scotia but one project is finding common ground between them.

The Partnership for Canada-Caribbean Community Climate Change Adaptation, or ParCA, is a five-year research programme investigating the ways Caribbean and Canadian coastal communities are grappling with long-term shifts in the environment and what they can teach each other.

It combines science and local knowledge to paint a big picture of change in four dramatically different places and pinpoint where those developments overlap. The four sites are Negril in Jamaica, Speyside to Charlotteville in Trinidad and Tobago, Lennox Island to Rustico in the Prince Edward Islands, and Lunenburg to Queens in Nova Scotia.

Beyond the obvious contrasts, the sites share some vulnerabilities and economic characteristics: each is making the switch to high-value tourism, each has strong links between fishing and tourism and each relies in big part on nearby protected marine zones. Learning how these factors play out in each area could be the start of a chain of best practices linking communities around the world.

Researchers will use the results to scale up plans to the national and regional levels, exploring where the authorities can sustainably develop a range of sectors, from coastal management and tourism planning to disaster preparedness and infrastructure.

The project is driven by a fundamental need to have people on the ground define just how and where their communities are vulnerable to climate change and what factors stand in the way of adaptation. The support and input of residents is critical if ideas for adaptation are to take root and grow into global collective knowledge.

That input is also essential if people are to come together around their common interests and use the strength of their combined local experience and resources to face challenges well into the future. ParCA’s goal is to leave a lasting legacy of shared awareness and information so that communities can find answers within themselves.

A big part of the endeavor will be to forge stronger scientific and professional research links between Canada and the Caribbean and train the next generation of highly qualified personnel. Scholarships will be awarded to many Caribbean nationals to conduct post-graduate studies at the Masters and PhD levels in various disciplines, ensuring ParCA’s ambitions live on well beyond the life of the project.

ParCA is a CARIBSAVE project conducted in partnership with the University of Waterloo (Canada).

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For further details about this initiative, visit the ParCA website: parca.uwaterloo.ca

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The overall objective of the five-year Partnership for Canada-Caribbean Community Climate Change Adaptation (ParCA) research programme, funded by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), is to utilize a common community-based vulnerability assessment (CBVA) framework to integrate scientific and local knowledge from comparative ‘learning sites’ to understand the multi-scale socioeconomic, governance and environmental conditions that shape vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate change within and between communities.

Four ‘Learning Sites’ have been strategically selected to take advantage of existing research networks of the research team, as well as common vulnerabilities and economic characteristics (e.g., high value tourism economy, tourism-fishery linkages, and significance of nearby protected areas to community livelihoods). These shared characteristics will serve to maximise the transferability of knowledge and best-practices to the hundreds of communities that will face common challenges in the Caribbean and Atlantic Canada.

The four sites (two in the Caribbean and two in Canada) are:

1. Jamaica: Negril to Montego Bay (Northwest shore)


2. Trinidad and Tobago: Speyside to Charlotteville [including Little Tobago], Tobago)


3. Prince Edward Islands (PEI): Lennox Island to Rustico (North shore)


4. Nova Scotia: Lunenburg to Queens (South shore)

Five principles guide the ParCA project: 1) application of a community?based vulnerability assessment (CBVA) framework to identify, in collaboration with communities and partners, exposure?sensitivities and associated adaptation strategies; 2) addressing key data gaps that constrain adaptation efforts in the Caribbean and Atlantic Canada; 3) participatory development and evaluation of adaptation portfolios; 4) ‘mainstreaming’ and ‘scaling?up’ of adaptation planning to incorporate local perspectives and values into governance arrangements for climate change adaptation; and 5) mobilising knowledge and empowering communities and partners to respond to climate change.

The approach directly meets the need for participatory community based adaptation research in the Caribbean region. CBVA has proven an effective tool for community engagement in the dialogue on adaptation, with strengths that include highlighting the needs of the various stakeholders within communities, the integration of local-traditional knowledge, and the identification of existing adaptation practices and contributors to adaptive capacity. The approach also identifies the role of climate-related exposures in the context of other, non-climatic stresses and highlights the necessity of understanding that adaptation decisions to climate change are rarely made in isolation from other social, economic and political concerns.

 

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Climate Change Risk Atlas

CARIBSAVE’s flagship Climate Change Risk Atlas is where the best climate science and thinking from communities come together to enable a region prepare for the future.  In short, it’s a one-stop, comprehensive guide to the threats climate change poses to 15 Caribbean countries and what they can do about them.

Framed with the key tourism sector in mind, the atlas pinpoints where and when fundamental shifts in the environment will occur across the Caribbean and how they will affect every aspect of life.

During three years, some of the world’s leading researchers in climate, physical and social sciences plotted the path of coming change and assessed the vulnerability of the region’s people, environment and infrastructure. The team worked with regional experts and institutions, particularly the University of the West Indies and the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre and applied various state-of-the-art, high-resolution climate models to estimate the most likely changes across the region. The project also used advanced mapping and survey techniques to identify where storm surges would hit or what infrastructure would be submerged by the projected rise in sea level.

Hundreds of meetings were held with residents, businesses and decision-makers to build up a picture of the social and economic consequences of the projected changes, adding an essential practical outlook and community knowledge to the project. When the consultations were done, the researchers had a much better idea of what the priorities would be for each community.

A critical goal of the consultation phase was to “democratise” climate change science. Through film (insert YouTube link), clear data maps and animation, the team brought the message home to individuals, explaining what changes, for example, increases in water temperature, were likely to mean for them.  Further, at each stage of the project, vital information surfacing from the study was shared with key ministries and policymakers in each country, underscoring the fact that climate change affects not only the environment but the economy, society, the physical landscape and national finances.

The task was to suggest ways that each island could take to mitigate and offset these threats. Coastal threats emerged as a core issue, with storms and hurricanes projected to increase in intensity and inflict an ever-greater toll, damage that will be compounded by sea level rise. The region’s largest industry, tourism and key infrastructure such as roads and airports, which are mostly based along the coastline, are highly vulnerable to these projected threats.  Further, the degradation of coastal ecosystems, in particular coral reefs, will also add to the rate of coastal erosion and risk of flooding.

Food security and energy were also key issues for the region, as most countries rely on imports to meet their needs.  Despite the availability of abundant renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, seven of the 15 countries examined rely on fossil fuels to generate all of their electricity. Here, cutting dependency on these fuels and turning to alternative sources makes sound economic and environmental sense; it would allow money spent on fuel to be diverted to local sources and play a part in reducing carbon emissions. Suriname, one country in the study, is leading the way, producing 95 percent of its power from hydro plants.

The result of the project is an accessible, science-based, practical guide that lets the general public and specialists alike compare and contrast their present and future risks.

The CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas was funded by UKaid from the United Kingdom Department for International Development and the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID).

The project was implemented in 15 countries: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Grenada, Jamaica, Nevis, St Lucia, St Kitts, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, and the Turks and Caicos.

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For more information click here: link to the short CCCRA Briefing Note

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The CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas was funded by UKaid from the United Kingdom Department for International Development (DFID) and the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID). The project was implemented in 15 countries: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Jamaica, Nevis, St. Lucia, St Kitts, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, and the Turks and Caicos, over a period of three (3) years, and focused on reducing vulnerability and enhancing resilience of the tourism sector and related sectors, vital to the economy and livelihoods of the Caribbean region.

These sectors or components were:

1. Climate Data, Variable Modelling and Impacts


2. Water Resources


3. Energy


4. Agriculture and Food Security


5. Human Health


6. Biodiversity (Marine and Terrestrial) and Fisheries


7. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements


8. Comprehensive Disaster Management


9. Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty & Development

The main outputs from CCCRA Phase I are Climate Change Risk Country Profiles which detail the key climate processes of relevance and key results specific to each country; the analysis of sea level rise and storm surge impacts on sections of national coastlines; the impact of climate change on coastal communities and an assessment of gender and livelihood differentials; and in coordination with national stakeholders vulnerability and adaptive capacity analyses of tourism and its related sectors are conducted. These outputs contribute to the work being conducted by national and regional organisations working in the areas of gender, sustainable development, climate change, and risk and disaster management. Other crucial components of the project included significant capacity building and awareness?raising initiatives for a range of agencies and institutions including coastal management agencies in the countries, national, local and regional tourism stakeholders, local communities and the University of West Indies.

 

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Management of Caribbean Climate Change Research Projects

CARIBSAVE’s wealth of expertise puts it not only at the forefront of work in climate change in the Caribbean, but also at the centre of efforts to conduct climate research in the Caribbean.

In November 2011, The CARIBSAVE Partnership was selected by the Climate Development Knowledge Network, as the managing partner of the Climate and Development Knowledge Network in an initiative to support climate change research in the Caribbean and to help decision-makers design and deliver climate-compatible development.

Through a process of inviting research proposals and rigorously evaluating them against a set of criteria, CARIBSAVE and an international expert panel selected five research projects to receive a total of US$480,000 in funding from the UK’s Department for International Development and the Netherlands’ Directorate-General for International Cooperation.  These are:

1. "Participatory research to enhance climate change policy and institutions in the Caribbean: ARIA tool pilot” being implemented by the Caribbean Natural Resources Institute.


2. "Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on Belize’s water resources” being implemented by the Environmental Research Institute of the University of Belize.


3. “Climate Change and inland flooding in Jamaica, risk and adaptation measures for vulnerable communities” being implemented by the Department of  Geography and  Geology, Mona Campus, University of the West Indies.


4. "Identifying opportunities for climate compatible tourism development in Belize” being implemented by the World Wildlife Fund Belize.


5. “Climate Impacts and Resilience in Caribbean Agriculture: Assessing the consequences of climate change on cocoa and tomato production in Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica”  - being jointly implemented by the Department of Geography and Geology, Mona Campus and the Department of Life Sciences, St. Augustine Campus, both of the University of the West Indies.

The range of outcomes from this two-year initiative will include case studies of activities which are compatible with climate change, planning and practice in a range of countries and contexts as well as academic peer-reviewed papers.

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For more information contact: Judi Clarke, judi.clarke@caribsave.org

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In progress...

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Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Impacts in the Caribbean & Pacific

The island communities of the Caribbean and Pacific contribute less than 1 percent to global greenhouse gas emissions but these countries are expected to be among the earliest and hardest-hit by climate change in the coming decades.

Their relative isolation, small land masses, concentrated coastal infrastructure and populations, small economies and dependency on natural resources makes them particularly exposed to extreme events and climate change impacts. These threats are compounded by a lack of technical expertise and finance.

But just how big are those threats and where are they likely to be felt the most? The United Nations Development Programme and funding bodies in Britain and Australia commissioned CARIBSAVE to catalogue those threats and impacts in a comprehensive study of the Caribbean, with added analysis for the Pacific islands.

The report was divided into two major phases. In the first, high-resolution climate models were overlaid on the Caribbean region to map likely sea level rises if average global temperatures were to increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius. The results gave a clear overview of the potential effects on vital resources like coral reefs and water supplies.

In the second phase, CARIBSAVE researchers quantified the cost of those upheavals to key sectors of the economy, putting a price on replacing lost environmental benefits like fresh drinking water. It drove home the need to bind detailed climate modeling into the decision-making process and to refine the ways these islands calculate the damage bill.

The reports revealed that the type of impacts of each scenario would be largely the same for all of the island communities but the scale of the fallout would vary dramatically. For example, a larger share of the population and infrastructure of Antigua and Belize would be susceptible to flooding from storm surges than in other places because of their proximity to the coast.

Decision-makers and many members of the general public are well aware that climate change threatens to transform their lives but there is little effective they can do without this kind of granular analysis. These reports not only provide the data and projections, they contain a raft of recommendations that all can use as a springboard for adaptation.

There is no doubt that the impact of sea level rises will affect every aspect of island communities. Unless there is targeted protection for life along coasts and careful planning of future infrastructure, island communities in the Caribbean and the Pacific will struggle to adapt to the tide of environmental change.

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For further information contact: admin@caribsave.org

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PHASE ONE: AN OVERVIEW OF MODELLING CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE PACIFIC REGION

This report, commissioned by the UNDP Sub-Regional Office for Barbados and the OCES and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) with support from Australia’s International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative; presented an overview for all CARICOM Member States of the risks from climate change, with a section on common threats of climate change for the Pacific island countries. It focused on climate change projections for the Caribbean region under +1.5°C and +2°C global warming scenarios, the implications of ice sheet melt for global sea level rise (SLR), the projections and implications of SLR for the Caribbean region, evaluation of the differential impacts of +1.5°C and +2°C on coral reefs, water resources and agriculture in the Caribbean, with additional analysis for the Pacific Islands.

Below are the outputs for Phase I:

An Overview of Modelling Climate Change: Impacts in the Caribbean Region with contribution from the Pacific Islands: Full Document | DOWNLOAD

An Overview of Modelling Climate Change: Impacts in the Caribbean Region with contribution from the Pacific Islands: Summary Document | DOWNLOAD

An Overview of Modelling Climate Change: Impacts in the Caribbean Region with contribution from the Pacific Islands: Key Points Document | DOWNLOAD

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PHASE TWO: QUANTIFICATION AND MAGNITUDE OF LOSSES AND DAMAGES RESULTING FROM THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: MODELLING THE TRANSFORMATIONAL IMPACTS AND COSTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE IN THE CARIBBEAN

This report, commissioned by the UNDP Sub-Regional Office for Barbados and the OCES, builds on the scientific foundations of Phase I and focuses on the recommendations, prioritised by the CARICOM Task Force on Climate Change and Development to be undertaken as soon as possible: (1) improving climate change modelling for making informed decisions, and (2) improving predictions of impacts on key sectors and assessing adaptation measures. Specifically, this report provides a detailed and vigorous assessment of the losses and damages associated with sea level rise impacts on the population, ecosystems and key economic sectors in CARICOM nations.

Below are the outputs for Phase II:

Quantification and Magnitude of Losses and Damages Resulting from the Impacts of Climate Change: Modelling the Transformational Impacts and Costs of Sea Level Rise in the Caribbean: Full Document | DOWNLOAD

Quantification and Magnitude of Losses and Damages Resulting from the Impacts of Climate Change: Modelling the Transformational Impacts and Costs of Sea Level Rise in the Caribbean: Summary Document | DOWNLOAD

Quantification and Magnitude of Losses and Damages Resulting from the Impacts of Climate Change: Modelling the Transformational Impacts and Costs of Sea Level Rise in the Caribbean: Key Points and Summary for Policy Makers | DOWNLOAD

 

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Barbados - Second National Communication

Barbados has been a signatory to the world’s key climate change convention for two decades - signing up is just the start. Each country that commits to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) must prepare detailed reports on how they are putting the agreement into practice.

These reports, or National Communications, describe the range of socio-economic factors that influence a country’s vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate change, from education and technology to financial resources and public awareness. In addition, the report provides an inventory of greenhouse gas emission sources and describes the efforts under way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It’s a highly demanding technical assessment and requires the skills and experience of expert researchers.

In 2011, Barbados’ Ministry of Environment and Drainage enlisted consultancy Environment Gain Ltd (Engain) from the UK – who then partnered with CARIBSAVE – to prepare the country’s Second National Communication report on progress made towards the convention’s goals.

The report draws on a wide range of public and private sources for data and information to ensure that the final document has the thoroughness the topic deserves. CARIBSAVE is responsible for reporting on how Barbados can adapt to the impacts of climate change and cut emissions to minimise environmental shifts.

Because of their international profile, these documents are some of the most important tools communities have to bring national climate change concerns to the attention of international policymakers and help identify where a country needs assistance. The documents are also the main reference point for national-level stakeholders interested in climate change.

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For further information contact: admin@caribsave.org

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Barbados ratified the UNFCCC on 23 March 1994 and the Kyoto Protocol on 7 August 2000. Parties to the UNFCCC must submit national reports on their implementation of the Convention to the Conference of the Parties. Barbados submitted its First National Communication (FNC) Report in November 2001 with the aid of technical and financial support from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). The report included information on national circumstances, vulnerability assessment, financial resources and transfer of technology, and education, training and public awareness. This project will result in the submission of the Second National Communication in 2013.

The Ministry of Environment and Drainage (MED) of the Government of Barbados secured the services of Environmental Gain Ltd (Engain) to produce a Second National Communication (SNC) that will provide a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory for Barbados and information on the mitigation of, and adaptation to, expected climate change impacts in the country. Engain have partnered with Aether of the UK and The CARIBSAVE Partnership to complete this important report.

The project consists of six (6) main components:

• National Circumstances


• GHG Inventory


• Programmes on Adaptation


• Mitigation Measures


• Other Gaps


• Constraints/Gaps

Compilation of the report requires the collation of data and information from a large number of organisations, both public and private, to ensure the SNC provides the best possible information. In addition, reporting on and assessing climate change mitigation options and adaptation strategies will require the active involvement of a wide number of people and organisations, and this activity should continue after the compilation of the SNC.

The National Communications are one of the most important tools for bringing climate change concerns to the attention of policy makers at the national level through highlighting and disseminating climate change concerns. Climate change is a complex issue, which has inevitable consequences for all spheres of the environment and subsequently the economy.

 

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Climate Change & Tourism Policies of SIDS, LDCs and Vulnerable Economies

Tourism is more than just visiting places of interest on a map. For small island states and less-developed economies in regions like the Caribbean, it sustains the lives of vast numbers of people and offers hope of a way out of poverty for many more.

But tourism is also highly vulnerable to the risks of long-term changes in the climate. The industry relies on holiday destinations having good weather to draw visitors, and changes to this delicate environmental balance can disrupt whole ways of life. In some cases, it can threaten a country’s political and economic foundations.

At the same time, tourism contributes to climate change, accounting for about 5 percent of carbon dioxide emissions, in large part due to air travel.

It’s essential then that governments integrate tourism into their decisions on climate change policy and aim to achieve a delicate balance between economic benefit and environmental impact.

In 2011, the British government’s Commonwealth Secretariat invited INTASAVE to contribute to a high-level discussion and prepare an analytical report on climate change and tourism policies in small island states, least developed countries and vulnerable economies.

The report is both specific and wide-ranging in one. It examines the role international tourism plays in social and economic development of these communities and the extent to which factors like rising sea levels, warming ocean temperatures, soil changes and more frequent forest fires will threaten the infrastructure supporting the industry.

The study also suggests action that governments in these countries can take to head off potential losses and identifies the gaps in knowledge and skills that prevent them from taking those steps. Every country faces its own set of challenges but there are precedents that each can use to adapt to and minimise the impact of climate change. Communities must also work together to reduce competition for increasingly scarce resources like water if entire populations are to navigate a course through the changing climate.

Smaller, vulnerable economies can improve their prospects of survival by sharing knowledge, skills and resources on a regional basis. It’s the most cost-effective way of tackling the issue and one that Caribbean countries, particularly members of the Caribbean Community, are already embracing.

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For further information contact: admin@caribsave.org

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Culture of Climate Change Index; Temperature Fluctuations for 27 Countries

The Culture of Climate Change Index accounts for a variety of factors and a wide range of data that set a benchmark for 27 countries to see how far each is along the road to sustainability.

Sponsored by the British Council (China), the index is a combination of soft and hard information that incorporates factors as diverse as public awareness and civil society to average surface temperatures and energy consumption.

INTASAVE provided the critical temperature data for each of the countries, spanning the globe from Australia to Sudan to Venezuela. These numbers are essential if the index is to have a solid foundation of climate science evidence on which to base later comparisons.

Using triangulated methodologies, INTASAVE’s researchers calculated and plotted mean average temperature fluctuations across each country over a five-decade period. It was a vast task that revealed significant variations in temperature in all but one of the countries over the study period.

Numbers are not solutions but they serve as important guides for measuring a country’s impact on the environment. The data provided and index, as a combined analysis, can also give impetus to action and point to models that other countries might follow to improve sustainability.

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For more information contact: admin@intasave.org

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Socio-Economic Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessments and Methodologies (SECCRVAM)

Some of the first climate change questions any community has to answer, is when and how to react to clear and present dangers and when and how to anticipate the threats that are to come.

Over the years, researchers and practitioners have crafted a wealth of increasingly sophisticated formulae - called risk and vulnerability assessments - for helping societies answer those questions.

The assessments aim to define where communities and nations are most exposed to the expected changes and why these systems are likely to be vulnerable. It’s a combination of causes and consequences on which individuals and policymakers alike can plan their future.

Over the past two decades, the methods and tools of these assessments have mushroomed as interest and urgency around climate change has grown. But this diversity of approaches raises its own question: just which method is the most effective?

In 2012, INTASAVE was enlisted by Adapting to Climate Change in China (ACCC) to survey the vast field of assessment methodology and report back on which ones worked best where and why, and in particular which would be most useful for China's communities and their developing country partners. The project was called SECCRVAM – Socio-Economic Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Methodology Report.

In all, 28 of the most widely used methods were compared and contrasted using nine major criteria. The INTASAVE researchers examined the range of approaches – from top-down to bottom-up – to see how they shaped up on factors such as stakeholder engagement, costs and data requirements, among others.

The overall conclusion was that no one method is suitable for all countries and all contexts – the choice depends on conditions on the ground and the best approach is a combination of methods. The study also revealed the gaps and limitations of each method and a holistic incorporation of top-down and bottom-up methodologies.

Four approaches emerged from the pack with a number of common strengths. They proved to be the most flexible, broadly applicable, detailed, affordable and successful. These were:

• The UK’s Climate Change Risk Assessment; for national scale (top-down) vulnerability assessments


• The Community-based Vulnerability Assessment (CBVA) Framework; for community- and organization-level (bottom-up) vulnerability assessments


• The UKCIP Adaptation Wizard


• The UKCIP Business Areas Climate Assessment Tool (BACLIAT)

For communities with scarce resources, the future depends on knowing what is susceptible and why and those answers depend upon the right research methods being applied and the most suitable analyses for each situation, this is what SECCRVAM provides.

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For further information contact: admin@intasave.org or murray.simpson@intasave.org

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This project is providing recommendations and a completed step by step guide for the implementation of a socio-economic climate change risk assessment methodology; as well as reviewing and assessing the current work on socio economic scenarios submitted by the China ASS funded by the Adaptation to Climate Change in China (ACCC) initiative conducted by DFID-China.

 

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Some Key Facts

Micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises contribute an estimated 90% of employment and 70% of the GDP of Caribbean countries.

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The cost for Latin America to adapt to a 2°C warmer world from 2010-2050 could cost between US$16.8 – US$21.5 billion per year (World Bank, 2009).

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According to the World Resources Institute Caribbean coral reefs alone generate between US$3.1 and US$4.6 billion across the Caribbean annually from fisheries, tourism and shoreline protection.

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Studies have shown that the biomass of fish inside a reserve can increase by between 2 to 21 times from its original level

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Half the world’s population lives within 100 km of a marine shoreline.

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• 80% of the human activities that threaten coasts occur on the land


• 50% of the world’s coasts are threatened by development


• 40% of coral reefs have been lost or degraded


• 80% of monitored beaches are eroding

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Now you don’t know when to plant and when not to not plant. When you’re waiting for rain, you’re not getting rain. When you’re waiting for sun, you’re not getting sun. The weather [changed].

Farmer

St Lucia

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Marine protected areas account for less than 0.05% of coasts & oceans[vc_separator el_position="last"] Sea level rise will continue for centuries after 2100, even if global temperatures are stabilized at 2.0 °C or 2.5°C[vc_separator el_position="last"] Caribbean countries, as a group, contribute only small amounts to global greenhouse gas emissions, however, seven of the fifteen countries still generate 100% of their electricity from fossil fuels.[vc_separator el_position="last"] Belize and Dominica produce more than 30% of electricity from renewable energy (mainly hydro) and Suriname produces 95% of its electricity from hydro.[vc_separator el_position="last"] Already some 300,000 deaths per year are being attributed to climate change and this is expected to rise to half a million per year globally by 2020[i].[vc_separator el_position="last"] In the Caribbean, tourism resorts would be at risk of flooding from just a 1 metre rise in sea-level[ii] and many more would have their infrastructure eroded.[vc_separator el_position="last"] 26 out of the Caribbean region’s 73 airports would be at risk from inundation with a 1 metre sea level rise[iii].[vc_separator el_position="last"] In Africa, between 25 and 40 per cent of mammal species in national parks in sub-Saharan Africa will become endangered as a result of climate change.[vc_separator el_position="last"]

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• Optimum beach tourism conditions for European tourists are 27^oC to 32^oC

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• The Caribbean accounts for just 0.2 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions while having 0.6 per cent of the world’s population

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• About 40,000 solar home systems are being installed per month in Bangladesh

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• Around 30,000 solar home systems are installed every year in Kenya

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• The likely costs to the Caribbean’s tourism sector from global inaction on climate change could range from US400 million to US$2billion by 2025 (Bueno, Herzfeld, Stanton, & Ackerman, 2008).

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• In the Caribbean more than half of the population lives within 1.5 km of the shoreline (Mimura et al., 2007).

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• Most of Barbados’ infrastructure, government, health and commercial facilities lie along various portions of the 97 km coastline which include low-lying and highly erodible shore areas that are particularly susceptible to sea level rise.

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[i] Global Humanitarian Forum (2009) Human Impact of Climate Change: The anatomy of a silent crisis.  www.ghf-ge.org/human-impact-report.pdf .  (Accessed 15 June 2011)

[ii] Rahmstorf, S. (2007) A semi-empirical approach to protecting future sea-level rise. Science 315 (5810), 368-370.

[iii] Simpson, M.C., Scott, D., Harrison, M., Silver, N., O’Keeffe, E., Harrison, S., Taylor, M., Lizcano, G., Rutty, M., Stager, H., Oldham, J., Wilson, M., New, M., Clarke, J. , Day, O.J., Fields, N., Georges, J., Waithe, R., McSharry, P. (2010) Quantification and magnitude of losses and damages resulting from the impacts of climate change: Modelling the transformational impacts and costs of sea level rise in the Caribbean. United Nations Development Programme, Barbados.

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UNWTO Political and Scientific Position Paper on Climate Change and Tourism

1.6 billion: That’s the number of international tourists expected to arrive at holiday destinations around the world in 2020.

It reflects not only a key source of income for countries but also the scale of an industry at the forefront of global climate change.

Tourism is inextricably tied to the environment, whether it’s snowboarding on the winter slopes of Hokkaido or scuba diving off the islands of Barbados, and if the earth’s temperature continues to rise as projected over the next few decades, the industry and the people it supports will feel the direct heat of those changes. The sector will also have a big role to play in keeping that general warming trend to a minimum.

In 2009, CARIBSAVE detailed those impacts and responsibilities in a report delivered at the 15^th Conference of Parties in Copenhagen by the United Nations World Tourism Organisation.

It spelled out the negative and positive impacts of global warming on the travel industry and how those effects will vary substantially by region and sector.

Tourism is one of the best-known ways of redistributing wealth from rich nations to poor ones and from urban areas to rural zones. It is an economic cornerstone for many less-developed countries and so any impacts from climate change is certain to deal a bigger blow to these communities.

These threats are becoming clearer by the day and so too does the need to respond. The industry will need to work out how it will cope with changes in the length and quality of climate-dependent tourism seasons as well as changes in factors such as water availability, biodiversity loss, landscape degradation and coastal erosion.

The sector will also have to confront the challenges posed by national or international policies to cut greenhouse gas emissions, such as higher transport costs. These difficulties may be compounded by potential political unrest stemming from the economic toll of climate change.

It’s critical then that any agreement on climate change considers the disproportionate and wide-ranging effects that it will have on tourism-dependent economies.

Tourism also has a role to play in reducing emissions. The industry contributes about 5 per cent of global carbon dioxide discharged into the atmosphere and must work to cut this toll. But any progress will rely on partnership. The complexity and scale of the issues demands collaboration between government, business and community.

Sea Level Rise and its Impact on the Cayman Islands

At just over 3 millimetres a year, the rise in sea levels can seem like a drop in the ocean. But as those increments add up and accelerate over time, their effects can be devastating, particularly for a country like the low-lying Cayman Islands.

Rising waters will lead to beach erosion and widespread destruction of mangroves, making those coastlines even more vulnerable to flooding than they are now. These effects will be magnified by stronger and longer-lasting hurricanes, tropical storms, tsunami and storm surges, which are certain to leave their damaging marks on the islands’ coral reefs and economy.

But there are ways the country can prepare for this future, and help other less-developed small islands grapple with change. The first step is to take stock of past and projected sea level rises in the islands and how they will affect the main features of the Cayman coastline and tourism industry.

This mission-critical information was documented in a report prepared by CARIBSAVE in 2009 for the Government of the Cayman Islands and the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office. The report laid a scientific foundation for future action, putting the islands in geological and historical context with satellite data and storm records.

The Cayman Islands sit on average about 2.1 meters above sea level and lie within the Caribbean current, which can vary sea levels by up to 0.2 meters. That elevation could decline by up to a meter by the end of the century

It is also hit or brushed by a hurricane every 2.23 years, taking a direct hit every 9.13 years. There is some debate about changes in the frequency and intensity of these storms, but the consensus is that hurricanes are likely to have an even bigger impact in the years to come.

Storm surges, which precede hurricanes, are becoming higher as the storms grow in strength, inundating even more ground and facilities.

As the country’s population and tourism-dependent economy grow, rising sea levels will impinge on more aspects of life in the islands. They will affect infrastructure such as roads, runways and ports; fresh water sources; agriculture; sewage; waste disposal and disaster management.

The islands’ government will have to plan for these changes by adapting regulations and building more shelters. But still more information is needed. The country needs a finer understanding of the scale of these environmental forces and what parts of the natural and built landscape are at risk. With improved knowledge of the threats to the coastline, adaptation can be planned.

(Featured photo by freewallpaper.ky)

Impact of Climate Change on the Socio-Economics of the Tourism Sector in Tobago

Traditional economic analysis cannot give small islands like Tobago the answers they need.

The models that have gone before are not equipped to provide these tourism-dependent communities with an accurate, low-cost and effective method for determining the impact of climate change on their economies.

But Tobago does not have time to lose. It needs to know now what the toll from climate change will be and what can be done about it. So the quest is on for a new, more flexible kind of economic analysis to account for these dynamics and help Tobago’s policymakers make the difficult decisions ahead.

That need was the substance of a briefing Tom Birch from the non-profit International Institute for Environment and Development and INTSAVE’s Murray Simpson prepared in collaboration with the Tobago House of Assembly (THA), the private sector and the local community in Tobago on January 2011.

Small but perfectly formed, Tobago is home to a wealth of biodiversity and a tourism industry that supports half of the island’s people. There are signs though that this way of life is under threat from three emerging, climate-related trends: sea level rise and storm surges, warmer sea temperatures and growing carbon “awareness”.

Sea level rise exposes Tobago to greater coastal erosion and beach loss as well as damage to key infrastructure like ports and hotels.  Warmer sea temperatures can endanger the algae which are crucial for coral reefs to flourish. Growing awareness of the carbon impact of long-haul flights and their associated environmental taxes could also strike Tobago off the holiday list for many European visitors.

These factors are highly uncertain, interconnected and complex, making it difficult to put a definitive price on them. One system can have a knock-on effect on another, and one set of stresses such waste water mismanagement can compound blows from other directions.

At the same time, Tobago’s tourism “product” is not one single thing but a group of related offerings that are consumed as a package. Its whole is much more than the sum of its fish, forests and reefs.

Economists have labored to tally the likely bill from these factors but the static nature of their models leaves them falling short. At best, a number can indicate the scale of a problem – it says nothing about what to do next.

It is important to put some kind of monetary value on these assets, but it is also necessary to say what action policymakers can take to prepare for and lessen some of that potential damage. Climate resilience must permeate every level of the system and become integral to governance, long-term strategies and daily operations. And that takes more than a hard and fast number.

Development of an Energy Policy for the Cayman Islands

Reliability, affordability, and sustainability. These are the core principles of the Cayman Islands’ national energy policy, a document developed and delivered in 2008/9 with the assistance of CARIBSAVE.

The process drew together government, regulators and power suppliers to define ways the islands could cut energy use and create a diverse and efficient power sector.

The overriding goals of the policy are to secure a reliable electricity supply while at the same time reducing the sector’s carbon footprint to within national targets. It is also essential that supplies come from a range of sources, that regulatory frameworks support these principles and that the public and private sectors promote energy conservation.

Funded by the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the policy’s reach extends well beyond electricity to determine links between energy and water consumption, land use, residential and commercial construction, transport, public education and the environment.

As part of that process, the participants investigated the most energy-efficient forms of technology at various points of use, renewable power options and the best water and wastewater treatment systems. This involved analysing existing power-generation technology and developing benchmarks for performance evaluation.

The once-in-a-generation policy is expected to be the cornerstone on which the Cayman Islands will build its energy infrastructure and make its decisions for the next two decades.