Sea Level Rise and its Impact on the Cayman Islands

At just over 3 millimetres a year, the rise in sea levels can seem like a drop in the ocean. But as those increments add up and accelerate over time, their effects can be devastating, particularly for a country like the low-lying Cayman Islands.

Rising waters will lead to beach erosion and widespread destruction of mangroves, making those coastlines even more vulnerable to flooding than they are now. These effects will be magnified by stronger and longer-lasting hurricanes, tropical storms, tsunami and storm surges, which are certain to leave their damaging marks on the islands’ coral reefs and economy.

But there are ways the country can prepare for this future, and help other less-developed small islands grapple with change. The first step is to take stock of past and projected sea level rises in the islands and how they will affect the main features of the Cayman coastline and tourism industry.

This mission-critical information was documented in a report prepared by CARIBSAVE in 2009 for the Government of the Cayman Islands and the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office. The report laid a scientific foundation for future action, putting the islands in geological and historical context with satellite data and storm records.

The Cayman Islands sit on average about 2.1 meters above sea level and lie within the Caribbean current, which can vary sea levels by up to 0.2 meters. That elevation could decline by up to a meter by the end of the century

It is also hit or brushed by a hurricane every 2.23 years, taking a direct hit every 9.13 years. There is some debate about changes in the frequency and intensity of these storms, but the consensus is that hurricanes are likely to have an even bigger impact in the years to come.

Storm surges, which precede hurricanes, are becoming higher as the storms grow in strength, inundating even more ground and facilities.

As the country’s population and tourism-dependent economy grow, rising sea levels will impinge on more aspects of life in the islands. They will affect infrastructure such as roads, runways and ports; fresh water sources; agriculture; sewage; waste disposal and disaster management.

The islands’ government will have to plan for these changes by adapting regulations and building more shelters. But still more information is needed. The country needs a finer understanding of the scale of these environmental forces and what parts of the natural and built landscape are at risk. With improved knowledge of the threats to the coastline, adaptation can be planned.

(Featured photo by freewallpaper.ky)

Impact of Climate Change on the Socio-Economics of the Tourism Sector in Tobago

Traditional economic analysis cannot give small islands like Tobago the answers they need.

The models that have gone before are not equipped to provide these tourism-dependent communities with an accurate, low-cost and effective method for determining the impact of climate change on their economies.

But Tobago does not have time to lose. It needs to know now what the toll from climate change will be and what can be done about it. So the quest is on for a new, more flexible kind of economic analysis to account for these dynamics and help Tobago’s policymakers make the difficult decisions ahead.

That need was the substance of a briefing Tom Birch from the non-profit International Institute for Environment and Development and INTSAVE’s Murray Simpson prepared in collaboration with the Tobago House of Assembly (THA), the private sector and the local community in Tobago on January 2011.

Small but perfectly formed, Tobago is home to a wealth of biodiversity and a tourism industry that supports half of the island’s people. There are signs though that this way of life is under threat from three emerging, climate-related trends: sea level rise and storm surges, warmer sea temperatures and growing carbon “awareness”.

Sea level rise exposes Tobago to greater coastal erosion and beach loss as well as damage to key infrastructure like ports and hotels.  Warmer sea temperatures can endanger the algae which are crucial for coral reefs to flourish. Growing awareness of the carbon impact of long-haul flights and their associated environmental taxes could also strike Tobago off the holiday list for many European visitors.

These factors are highly uncertain, interconnected and complex, making it difficult to put a definitive price on them. One system can have a knock-on effect on another, and one set of stresses such waste water mismanagement can compound blows from other directions.

At the same time, Tobago’s tourism “product” is not one single thing but a group of related offerings that are consumed as a package. Its whole is much more than the sum of its fish, forests and reefs.

Economists have labored to tally the likely bill from these factors but the static nature of their models leaves them falling short. At best, a number can indicate the scale of a problem – it says nothing about what to do next.

It is important to put some kind of monetary value on these assets, but it is also necessary to say what action policymakers can take to prepare for and lessen some of that potential damage. Climate resilience must permeate every level of the system and become integral to governance, long-term strategies and daily operations. And that takes more than a hard and fast number.

Development of an Energy Policy for the Cayman Islands

Reliability, affordability, and sustainability. These are the core principles of the Cayman Islands’ national energy policy, a document developed and delivered in 2008/9 with the assistance of CARIBSAVE.

The process drew together government, regulators and power suppliers to define ways the islands could cut energy use and create a diverse and efficient power sector.

The overriding goals of the policy are to secure a reliable electricity supply while at the same time reducing the sector’s carbon footprint to within national targets. It is also essential that supplies come from a range of sources, that regulatory frameworks support these principles and that the public and private sectors promote energy conservation.

Funded by the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the policy’s reach extends well beyond electricity to determine links between energy and water consumption, land use, residential and commercial construction, transport, public education and the environment.

As part of that process, the participants investigated the most energy-efficient forms of technology at various points of use, renewable power options and the best water and wastewater treatment systems. This involved analysing existing power-generation technology and developing benchmarks for performance evaluation.

The once-in-a-generation policy is expected to be the cornerstone on which the Cayman Islands will build its energy infrastructure and make its decisions for the next two decades.