Sea Level Rise and its Impact on the Cayman Islands

At just over 3 millimetres a year, the rise in sea levels can seem like a drop in the ocean. But as those increments add up and accelerate over time, their effects can be devastating, particularly for a country like the low-lying Cayman Islands.

Rising waters will lead to beach erosion and widespread destruction of mangroves, making those coastlines even more vulnerable to flooding than they are now. These effects will be magnified by stronger and longer-lasting hurricanes, tropical storms, tsunami and storm surges, which are certain to leave their damaging marks on the islands’ coral reefs and economy.

But there are ways the country can prepare for this future, and help other less-developed small islands grapple with change. The first step is to take stock of past and projected sea level rises in the islands and how they will affect the main features of the Cayman coastline and tourism industry.

This mission-critical information was documented in a report prepared by CARIBSAVE in 2009 for the Government of the Cayman Islands and the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office. The report laid a scientific foundation for future action, putting the islands in geological and historical context with satellite data and storm records.

The Cayman Islands sit on average about 2.1 meters above sea level and lie within the Caribbean current, which can vary sea levels by up to 0.2 meters. That elevation could decline by up to a meter by the end of the century

It is also hit or brushed by a hurricane every 2.23 years, taking a direct hit every 9.13 years. There is some debate about changes in the frequency and intensity of these storms, but the consensus is that hurricanes are likely to have an even bigger impact in the years to come.

Storm surges, which precede hurricanes, are becoming higher as the storms grow in strength, inundating even more ground and facilities.

As the country’s population and tourism-dependent economy grow, rising sea levels will impinge on more aspects of life in the islands. They will affect infrastructure such as roads, runways and ports; fresh water sources; agriculture; sewage; waste disposal and disaster management.

The islands’ government will have to plan for these changes by adapting regulations and building more shelters. But still more information is needed. The country needs a finer understanding of the scale of these environmental forces and what parts of the natural and built landscape are at risk. With improved knowledge of the threats to the coastline, adaptation can be planned.

(Featured photo by freewallpaper.ky)