Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Impacts in the Caribbean & Pacific

The island communities of the Caribbean and Pacific contribute less than 1 percent to global greenhouse gas emissions but these countries are expected to be among the earliest and hardest-hit by climate change in the coming decades.

Their relative isolation, small land masses, concentrated coastal infrastructure and populations, small economies and dependency on natural resources makes them particularly exposed to extreme events and climate change impacts. These threats are compounded by a lack of technical expertise and finance.

But just how big are those threats and where are they likely to be felt the most? The United Nations Development Programme and funding bodies in Britain and Australia commissioned CARIBSAVE to catalogue those threats and impacts in a comprehensive study of the Caribbean, with added analysis for the Pacific islands.

The report was divided into two major phases. In the first, high-resolution climate models were overlaid on the Caribbean region to map likely sea level rises if average global temperatures were to increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius. The results gave a clear overview of the potential effects on vital resources like coral reefs and water supplies.

In the second phase, CARIBSAVE researchers quantified the cost of those upheavals to key sectors of the economy, putting a price on replacing lost environmental benefits like fresh drinking water. It drove home the need to bind detailed climate modeling into the decision-making process and to refine the ways these islands calculate the damage bill.

The reports revealed that the type of impacts of each scenario would be largely the same for all of the island communities but the scale of the fallout would vary dramatically. For example, a larger share of the population and infrastructure of Antigua and Belize would be susceptible to flooding from storm surges than in other places because of their proximity to the coast.

Decision-makers and many members of the general public are well aware that climate change threatens to transform their lives but there is little effective they can do without this kind of granular analysis. These reports not only provide the data and projections, they contain a raft of recommendations that all can use as a springboard for adaptation.

There is no doubt that the impact of sea level rises will affect every aspect of island communities. Unless there is targeted protection for life along coasts and careful planning of future infrastructure, island communities in the Caribbean and the Pacific will struggle to adapt to the tide of environmental change.

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For further information contact: admin@caribsave.org

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PHASE ONE: AN OVERVIEW OF MODELLING CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE PACIFIC REGION

This report, commissioned by the UNDP Sub-Regional Office for Barbados and the OCES and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) with support from Australia’s International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative; presented an overview for all CARICOM Member States of the risks from climate change, with a section on common threats of climate change for the Pacific island countries. It focused on climate change projections for the Caribbean region under +1.5°C and +2°C global warming scenarios, the implications of ice sheet melt for global sea level rise (SLR), the projections and implications of SLR for the Caribbean region, evaluation of the differential impacts of +1.5°C and +2°C on coral reefs, water resources and agriculture in the Caribbean, with additional analysis for the Pacific Islands.

Below are the outputs for Phase I:

An Overview of Modelling Climate Change: Impacts in the Caribbean Region with contribution from the Pacific Islands: Full Document | DOWNLOAD

An Overview of Modelling Climate Change: Impacts in the Caribbean Region with contribution from the Pacific Islands: Summary Document | DOWNLOAD

An Overview of Modelling Climate Change: Impacts in the Caribbean Region with contribution from the Pacific Islands: Key Points Document | DOWNLOAD

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PHASE TWO: QUANTIFICATION AND MAGNITUDE OF LOSSES AND DAMAGES RESULTING FROM THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: MODELLING THE TRANSFORMATIONAL IMPACTS AND COSTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE IN THE CARIBBEAN

This report, commissioned by the UNDP Sub-Regional Office for Barbados and the OCES, builds on the scientific foundations of Phase I and focuses on the recommendations, prioritised by the CARICOM Task Force on Climate Change and Development to be undertaken as soon as possible: (1) improving climate change modelling for making informed decisions, and (2) improving predictions of impacts on key sectors and assessing adaptation measures. Specifically, this report provides a detailed and vigorous assessment of the losses and damages associated with sea level rise impacts on the population, ecosystems and key economic sectors in CARICOM nations.

Below are the outputs for Phase II:

Quantification and Magnitude of Losses and Damages Resulting from the Impacts of Climate Change: Modelling the Transformational Impacts and Costs of Sea Level Rise in the Caribbean: Full Document | DOWNLOAD

Quantification and Magnitude of Losses and Damages Resulting from the Impacts of Climate Change: Modelling the Transformational Impacts and Costs of Sea Level Rise in the Caribbean: Summary Document | DOWNLOAD

Quantification and Magnitude of Losses and Damages Resulting from the Impacts of Climate Change: Modelling the Transformational Impacts and Costs of Sea Level Rise in the Caribbean: Key Points and Summary for Policy Makers | DOWNLOAD

 

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